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Using predictive modeling for proactive water main planning in Mobile, AL

Mobile Area Water and Sewer System (MAWSS) provides water and wastewater services to over 100,000 customers in Mobile, Alabama and surrounding areas. On average, MAWSS delivers 41 million gallons of clean water per day through 1,605 miles of water mains.

MAWSS’ drinking water is sourced from nearby Big Creek Lake. Roughly 50% of the water mains are cast iron  and the remaining 50% are a mix of ductile iron, PVC, high-density polyethylene (HDPE), and prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). The system includes water mains that are >120 years old as well as a wide range of diameters, from 2” up to 60”.

MAWSS water mains have a relatively high break rate; in 2023, break rate data revealed 0.595 breaks per mile. High surface water temperatures and temperature swings often contribute to breaks and cracks, particularly in small diameter and HDPE pipes. MAWSS leaders struggle to prioritize water line replacement projects to become more proactive and less reactive.

The Need

Managing small diameter breaks is diverting resources from other priority projects. MAWSS needs to know where and when small diameter breaks are likely to occur, in order to take action – including proactive maintenance and replacement – to reduce the break rate.

The Action

MAWSS decided to explore predictive modeling and searched for a solution that would provide 1) improved data and analysis, including prediction explainability, 2) the ability to create a data-driven, defensible 5-year plan for water main replacements, and 3) continual monitoring, analysis, and assessment capabilities.

The Outcome

MAWSS selected BlueConduit’s Water Main Predictions tool for this work. As BlueConduit partners for LSL Predictions, they had high confidence in BlueConduit’s expert Data Science team and easy-to-use technology tools. In addition, the MAWSS team was excited to have BlueConduit enrich their dataset, particularly with weather data, and to engage with a dynamic, continually up-to-date tool available directly in their Esri environment.

“We’re entirely ratepayer driven, so we’re working with a fixed budget. We needed a tool that lets us continually monitor the system and gives us a better way of assessing and planning to address risk. We’re excited to partner with BlueConduit on this critical work.” –Russell Lomax, MAWSS Water & Sewer Operations Manager

By the numbers

  • 1,600 miles (water mains)
  • >120 years old (age of oldest mains)
  • 1,004 miles of mains <=8”
  • 0.595 breaks/mile (break rate)

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